Friday, February 4, 2011

The Thin line the Terps are Riding. (or not?)

As you all know, Maryland recently lost to Duke. At home. By 18 points. Not really the score you were expecting huh? Well that loss has put Maryland in a very..well not a very good situation. As of now the "marquee" win that the Terps currently have is @Penn State by 23. This win actually looks pretty good considering Penn State is a top 50 RPI team, although that may not hold. Now most people are saying that the Terps need to go 7-1 or 6-2(IMO 6-2 would have to happen for us to get in). Now look at this, Penn State is receiving 14 votes in the top 25 poll, but Maryland is receiving none, Maryland has the better record and beat them by 23 at there home gym, yet they're rated higher then us. I know that Penn State has some good wins but Michigan State was considered one of their best wins and Michigan State just lost to Iowa by 20, yes the same Iowa that lost to Long Beach State.According to Kenpom, Maryland is ranked 21st in the country. Kenpom uses a variety of factors to determine the rankings and have had good results in the past. Also according to Kenpom we have a 35% chance of getting 10 wins and a 17% chance of getting 11 wins. We have the 53rd SOS and a projected record of 10-6 in the ACC, which may get us in but a win or two would probably get us into the tournament. We are also rated ahead of other bubble teams such as Marquette,Vanderbilt, St. Marys, and Florida. Kenpom isn't one of the items the selection commitee looks at but it is a good indicator for what they may look at. I know the first few games to start our run look pretty easy(well, the Longwood game is a gimmie)but the Wake Forest game may be a trap game, especially with all the talk that we may have to win out just to get in, it's not like the players aren't hearing this stuff because they are. I think this Wake Forest game will be a tougher game then the Boston College game, BC just got destroyed by North Carolina. The VaTech and UNC games are obviously tough but another tough game has to be the Miami game, their record is deceiving. Even through all of this i see the Terps going 7-1 and reaching the final in the ACC tournament, which more than likely would get us in. In Gary I Trust.

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